Fortunately, there are handful of life, mortgage and local market signals which indicate that the time *might* be right to hop – scratch that – leap off the fence and into homeownership:

Mortgage rates are going up.  Home prices have been low for the last several years, and in fact are currently looking like they’re heading back down to the same levels they were at the depths of the real estate recession. During this same time frame, interest rates have also been low – this one-two punch has created record-high affordability for the last four years running, causing buyers to believe that this window of opportunity won’t be closing anytime soon.

While prices don’t look like they’ll be skyrocketing anytime soon, interest rates are another story. Rates have been on a rollercoaster over the past few months, and with inflation and Fed rates set to spike later this year, today’s low interest rates might be as good as they’re going to get for a long time to come.  And I mean a very long time – in the next few years, governmental intervention in the mortgage markets is likely to wind down, and that means higher mortgage interest rates are not only inevitable, they’ll probably be here for a long, long time. 

Mortgage rates on the rise are one signal that now might be the peak of home affordability, and the peak of the opportunity to buy.

Rents are going up.  Rental rates in many areas are also on the rise – in fact, the foreclosure crisis has acted created additional demand on many markets’ rental housing inventory in several different ways. First, former homeowners who lost homes to foreclosure now need to rent; as well, buyers in foreclosure hot spots have been hesitant to buy, many electing to stay renters far beyond when they would have otherwise. On top of all that, super-tight lending guidelines have stopped even some who would like to buy homes from doing so.  As a result, rental homes are in high demand – and rents are rising.

Rising rents at a time when the prices of homes for sale are low and, in some places, falling?  One more signal that now might just be the time to buy. (Of course, where foreclosures are high, the chances of continued depreciation are, too – to offset this risk, have a long-term plan, to minimize the possibility that you’ll owe more than your home is worth when you need to sell.  Read on for more on how to plan for the long term and minimize your homebuying risk.)



Your income and career are stable for the foreseeable future.  The smartest homebuyers look to their lives, not just the market, for signals about when the time is right to buy. Homebuying is a long, long-term endeavor these days. The goal is to be able to commit to staying in the same place, geographically-speaking, for 7 to 10 years before you buy (more in a foreclosure-riddled market, less in an area that has been more recession-resistant). Most lenders will require that you’ve been at your job – or in the same general field of work – for at least two years before you buy. But that’s the bare minimum – beyond that, you don’t want to be barely beginning a career in which you think you may need to move sooner than that, nor do you want to buy when you’re advanced in your career, but in an industry which is dying or downsizing the workforce in your region (unless you have a strong Plan B).

When you get to the spot in your career where you can realistically project a stable income 7 to 10 years out, life might be giving you a green light to move forward on your homebuying dreams.

You can reasonably predict the home you’ll need in the years to come.  Since successful homeownership requires that you be ready to be in the place for a good number of years, best practice is not just to buy a home with the space and number of rooms you need right now – rather, you should aim to buy the home you’ll need 5, 7 or even 10 years down the road (to the best of your ability to predict, of course). You might be a newlywed with no kids now, but you plan to have them in a few years. Or maybe you’re a newly minted empty nester right now, but can project that you’ll want to retire – and might not want to climb two flights of stairs to get to and from your bedroom – 10 years down the road. Before you buy, you should be in a position to buy the home that meets your future needs – not just your current ones; and that requires that you have a reasonable idea of your life vision and plan for the future.

If you’re able to predict – and afford, at today’s prices – a home with the space, amenity and geographic location you’ll need 7 to 10 years from now, you might be in a good phase of life to get off the rent vs. buy fence.

With that said. . . buying a home is a massive decision and includes multiple, long-term financial and lifestyle obligations, so if one or more of these signals are present for you, that doesn’t mean you have the green light to run out and buy a home tomorrow – rather, it’s a good sign you should begin down that path, if you’re so inclined. You’ll still need to do the work to make sure your personal finances and holistic life picture are also in alignment before you buy, as well of the work it takes to ensure that your real estate and mortgage decisions are sustainable and smart, over the long-term.

It’s not overkill to check in with a mortgage pro, a tax pro, a local real estate broker or agent and a financial planner to make sure all your ducks – not just one – are in a row before you make your move.

 Written by Tara-Nicholle Nelson

1. Don’t buy if you can’t stay put.

If you can’t commit to remaining in one place for at least a few years, then owning is probably not for you, at least not yet. With the transaction costs of buying and selling a home, you may end up losing money if you sell any sooner – even in a rising market. When prices are falling, it’s an even worse proposition.

2. Start by shoring up your credit.

Since you most likely will need to get a mortgage to buy a house, you must make sure your credit history is as clean as possible. A few months before you start house hunting, get copies of your credit report. Make sure the facts are correct, and fix any problems you discover.

3. Aim for a home you can really afford.

The rule of thumb is that you can buy housing that runs about two-and-one-half times your annual salary. But you’ll do better to use one of many calculators available online to get a better handle on how your income, debts, and expenses affect what you can afford.

4. If you can’t put down the usual 20 percent, you may still qualify for a loan.

There are a variety of public and private lenders who, if you qualify, offer low-interest mortgages that require a down payment as small as 3 percent of the purchase price.

5. Buy in a district with good schools.

In most areas, this advice applies even if you don’t have school-age children. Reason: When it comes time to sell, you’ll learn that strong school districts are a top priority for many home buyers, thus helping to boost property values.

6. Get professional help.

Even though the Internet gives buyers unprecedented access to home listings, most new buyers (and many more experienced ones) are better off using a professional agent. Look for an exclusive buyer agent, if possible, who will have your interests at heart and can help you with strategies during the bidding process.

7. Choose carefully between points and rate.

When picking a mortgage, you usually have the option of paying additional points — a portion of the interest that you pay at closing — in exchange for a lower interest rate. If you stay in the house for a long time — say three to five years or more — it’s usually a better deal to take the points. The lower interest rate will save you more in the long run.

8. Before house hunting, get pre-approved.

Getting pre-approved will you save yourself the grief of looking at houses you can’t afford and put you in a better position to make a serious offer when you do find the right house. Not to be confused with pre-qualification, which is based on a cursory review of your finances, pre-approval from a lender is based on your actual income, debt and credit history.

9. Do your homework before bidding.

Your opening bid should be based on the sales trend of similar homes in the neighborhood. So before making it, consider sales of similar homes in the last three months. If homes have recently sold at 5 percent less than the asking price, you should make a bid that’s about eight to 10 percent lower than what the seller is asking.

10. Hire a home inspector.

Sure, your lender will require a home appraisal anyway. But that’s just the bank’s way of determining whether the house is worth the price you’ve agreed to pay. Separately, you should hire your own home inspector, preferably an engineer with experience in doing home surveys in the area where you are buying. His or her job will be to point out potential problems that could require costly repairs down the road.

• 

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The ride ends in the year 2007 with an unknown exit strategy and known bottom to the bubble.  Just hold on though because we always bounce back at the coast.  You have heard it a million times… Location, Location, Location.  They dont make anymore beach property and everyone wants a piece of the coast!

2011 is going to be an exciting year for our local real estate market. During the fourth quarter of 2010, our residential market showed significant signs of improvement over year-end 2009. This is an extraordinary sign that the market is stabilizing which will offer many potential homeowners and REALTORS® reason to continue being optimistic heading into the rest of this year.  

While analyzing the growth within these six major zip codes in our region – 28403, 28405, 28409, 28411, 28412 and 28451, an average of the zip codes shows:

   • Our average sales price had an increase of 3.2% from year-
   end 2009.
   • Of the 2,587 sellers in 2010, 28.4% paid some sort of concession
   toward the purchase of the house.
   • Our list to sales price ratio for 2010 was 94.65%, a slight decrease
   from 95.12% for year-end 2009.
   • The average list price of the sold properties was $260,379,
   up 3.7% from year-end 2009.
   • The average number of days a property remained on the market
   for 2010 was 123 days, compared to 132 days for year-end 2009.
   • The median sold price of $195,000 for 2010 was an
   increase of 2.7% from year-end 2009.

The areas of focus in this analysis were: 

   • Sellers Concessions – The amount of money a seller of a house
   contributes toward the buyers purchase.
   • List Price – The amount of money a home is listed on the market.
   • Selling Price – The price the seller accepts for his or her house.
   • Days on Market – The number of days a house remains for sale,
   from the listing date to the date the property is placed under contract.
   • List to Sales Price Ratio – The difference between the list price
   and the selling price
   shown as a percentage.

Year-End Average Selling Price Chart – 2009 vs. 2010

 
28403 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $210,977 increased .8% from year-end 2009 average selling price of $209,290.
• 22% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 16% in year-end 2009.
• The average list price of $228,082 for 2010 increased 1.9% over year-end 2009 average list price of $223,749.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 135 days, compared to 142 days for year-end 2009.
• The median sold price of $166,000 for 2010 decreased 2.0% from year-end 2009.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 92.5% of the asking price, a decrease from 93.5% year-end 2009.

28405 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $276,251 increased 10.5% from year-end 2009 average selling price of $250,111. The best of all the zip codes.
• 28% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 22% for year-end 2009.
• The average list price of $298,717 for 2010 increased 12.3% from year-end 2009 average list price of $265,960. The best of all the zip codes.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 136 days, compared to 138 days for year-end 2009.
• The median sold price of $175,000 for 2010 decreased 2.8% from year-end 2009.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 92.4% of the asking price, a decrease from 94.0% for year-end 2009.

28409 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $290,323 decreased .3% over year-end 2009 average selling price of $291,089.
• 19% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 19% in year-end 2009. The best of all the zip codes.
• The average list price of $310,292 for 2010 decreased .7% over year-end 2009 average list price of $312,455.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 130 days, compared to 133 days for year-end 2009.
• The median sold price of $237,000 for 2010 increased .9% from year-end 2009.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 93.5% of the asking price, an increase from 93.1% for year-end 2009.

28411 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $295,135 increased 3.4% over year-end 2009 average selling price of $285,407.
• 33% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 22.0% in year-end 2009.
• The average list price of $310,732 for 2010 increased 1.7% over the year-end 2009 average list price of $305,422.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 113 days, compared to 126 days for year-end 2009. The best of all the zip codes.
• The median sold price of $223,000 for 2010 increased 3.7% from year-end 2009. The best of all the zip codes.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 94.9% of the asking price, an increase from 93.4% for year-end 2009.

28412 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $192,063 decreased .9% over year-end 2009 average selling price of $193,872.
• 31% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 27% in year-end 2009.
• The average list price of $201,121 for 2010 decreased .8% over the year-end 2009 average list price of $202,816.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 116 days, compared to 139 days for year-end 2009.
• The median sold price of $165,000 for 2010 decreased 5.7% from year-end 2009.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 95.50% of the asking price, a decrease from 95.59% for year-end 2009.

28451 Zip Code

• The average selling price of $217,300 decreased .5% over year-end 2009 average selling price of $218,553.
• 32% of sellers in 2010 paid a concession compared to 31% in year-end 2009.
• The average list price of $221,983 for 2010 decreased .3% over the year-end 2009 average list price of $222,802.
• The average number of days a property remained on the market for 2010 was 113 days, compared to 124 days for year-end 2009.
• The median sold price of $190,060 for 2010 increased 3.6% from year-end 2009.
• Sold homes in 2010 received 97.8% of the asking price, an decrease from 98.0% for year-end 2009.  The best of all the zip codes.

Summary

During 2010, we experienced a positive increase in the average sold price compared to 2009 by 3.2%. We also had an increase of 2.4% in the number of homes sold over 2009. 

Three of the zip codes we analyzed had average sold price increases from .8% to 10.5% over year-end 2009 while the other three zip codes had average sold price decreases from .3% to .9%. This is excellent progress for our local market; the three zip codes that had price decreases were all less than 1.0%. One year ago, we were looking at decreases of 9.9% to 24.2% for these different zip codes. Only two zip codes had an increase in the list to sales price ratio for the 2010 while four had a slight decrease from year-end 2009. Three zip codes had an increase in average list price from 1.7% to 12.3% over year end 2009.

Concessions offered to buyers were offered in 19% to 33% of the transactions in 2010. Our median sales price for 2010 ($195,000) reflects a gain of 2.7% from year-end 2009 ($189,900). Our overall average days on market was 123 days, a decrease of 9 days from year-end 2009. Sellers in 28451 got about 97.8% of their asking price while those in 28405 only got 92.4% of their asking price. Four zip codes had an increase in units sold over 2009.

The last two years will be looked at as the years in which our market bottomed out and started to stabilize. 2011 presents us with a housing opportunity that makes it the most affordable in generations. Contact a REALTOR® today to help you take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity. Now might be your best chance ever to achieve the American dream of homeownership.

By Karen Parkin, ARM®, GRI – 2011 WRAR President

An Analysis of information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS® Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 – data pulled on January 17, 201